The Application of Causal Analysis Techniques for Computer-Related Mishaps

Causal analysis techniques support the investigation of incidents and accidents. These include elicitation methods, such as Barrier Analysis, and event-based techniques, for example accident fault trees. Other approaches rely on flow charts, including those within the PRISMA approach and accident models, including the control theory model in STAMP. A further class of causal analysis techniques relies upon models of argumentation, such as the counterfactual approach in WBA. This paper reviews the support that different causal analysis techniques provide for the investigation of adverse events and near misses involving Electrical, Electronic or Programmable, Electronic Systems (E/E/PES). The events leading to an explosion and fires at a fluidized catalytic cracking unit are used to illustrate the application of these different techniques. This is then used to assess the degree of support that different techniques provide for the identification of latent failures at different stages in the software and systems lifecycle.